State-by-State Marijuana Legalization Predictions (UPDATED 11/11/2016)
We have updated this page with the results of marijuana legalization! Cannabis won big on November 8th. Our predictions were 66% accurate… but we have to say, we’re okay with that. For example, we predicted Arkansas wouldn’t pass medical marijuana, but then they did. Then, we predicted Montana wouldn’t expand medical marijuana, but then they did. Finally, we predicted North Dakota wouldn’t pass medical marijuana, but then they did. Only one state didn’t pass their marijuana legalization legislation: Arizona. (Updated November 11, 2016)
Today’s the day! Nine states are voting on marijuana legalization for either recreational or medical use. Some states are more likely to vote for legalization than others. Here’s a breakdown of how each state has been polling and what we are predicting:
Arizona
Proposition 205 would legalize the recreational use of cannabis for adults 21 years and older. The most recent poll results are from Nov. 1st and showed that 48% favored legalization while 47% opposed it, leaving 4% undecided. Nine polls have been conducted since April, and support seems to go back and forth. Anti-pot has come out on top 5 times, with pro-pot winning out 4 times. The average result of all of these polls shows support at 45.91%, opposition at 46.32%, and undecided at 7.66%
Prediction: The results will be extremely close, but ultimately Prop 205 will not pass.
Outcome: Prop 205 did not pass.
Arkansas
Issue 6 would legalize medical marijuana in Arkansas. The most recent poll results are from Oct. 25th and showed 50% in favor, 43% opposed, and 6% undecided. Three of the four polls that have been released since June, have shown a very slight majority. Also, the average result of these polls shows support at 51.75%, opposition at 42.75%, and undecided at 5.25%.
Prediction: Issue 6 will not pass.
Outcome: Issue 6 passed.
California
Proposition 64 would legalize the recreational use of cannabis for adults 21 years and older. The most recent poll results are from Oct. 30th and showed 58% in favor, 37% opposed, and 5% undecided. Of the 11 polls that have been released since February, every single poll has shown a majority support. Also, the average result of all of these polls shows support at 58.43%, opposition at 35.15%, and undecided at 6.34%.
Prediction: Prop 64 will pass.
Outcome: Prop 64 passed.
Florida
Amendment 2 would legalize medical marijuana in Florida. Amendment 2 would amend Florida’s constitution and requires a super majority vote of 60% in order to pass. The most recent poll results are from Oct. 26th and showed 71.3% in favor, 21.6% opposed, and 7.1% undecided. Of the 15 polls that have been released since Jan. 2015, every single poll has shown a majority support in excess of 60%. The average result of these polls shows support at 70.94%, opposition at 22.65%, and undecided at 6.21%.
Prediction: Amendment 2 will pass.
Outcome: Amendment 2 passed.
Maine
Question 1 would legalize the recreational use of cannabis for adults 21 years and older. The most recent poll results are from Oct. 25th and showed 50% in favor, 41% opposed, and 9% undecided. Only three polls have been conducted since March and they’ve all shown majority support. Finally, the average result of all of these polls shows support at 52.27%, opposition at 40.47%, and undecided at 7.6%.
Prediction: It will be closer than California, but Question 1 will pass.
Outcome: Question 1 passed, but it was so close that there may be a recount.
Massachusetts
Question 4 would legalize the recreational use of cannabis for adults 21 years and older. The most recent poll results are from Nov. 2nd and showed 62% in favor, 33% opposed, and 4% undecided. Of the 12 polls that have been done since May 2014, 10 have shown majority support. Also, the average result of all of these polls shows support at 51.23%, opposition at 41.2%, and undecided at 7.32%.
Prediction: Question 4 will pass.
Outcome: Question 4 passed.
Montana
Initiative 182 would repeal Senate Bill 423 and the limits it placed on medical marijuana. Initiative 182 would allow dispensaries to serve more than three patients. The most recent poll results are from Oct. 12th and showed support at 44%, opposition at 51%, and undecided at 5%. The only other poll was conducted in Sept. and showed support at 59%, opposition at 32%, and undecided at 9%.
Prediction: I-182 will not pass.
Outcome: I-182 passed.
Nevada
Question 2 would legalize the recreational use of cannabis for adults 21 years and older. The most recent poll results from Oct. 23rd showed 47% in favor, 43% opposed, and 11% undecided. Seven polls have been done since July. Furthermore, each poll has shown more support than opposition. The average result of all of these polls shows support at 50.71%, opposition at 40.86%, and undecided at 8.57%.
Prediction: It will be extremely close, but Question 2 will pass.
Outcome: Question 2 passed.
North Dakota
Finally, measure 5 would legalize medical marijuana. There have been no polls for this particular measure. A 2014 poll showed that 47% supported medical marijuana legalization, 41% were opposed, and 9% were neutral.
Prediction: Measure 5 will not pass.
Outcome: Measure 5 passed.
All poll information from ballotpedia.org